3/30/2023 0 Comments Peter graven![]() “People have been told they can’t do a lot of things right now for many, it’s their livelihoods. As a trained health economist, he understands the enormous economic and personal consequences. There is no way we could do this alone.” Become your own COVID-19 forecaster with Graven’s custom web tool. We are maintaining the health and well-being of our workforce. “We thank everyone in this moment because keeping the infectivity rates down has given us the capacity to care for people in our hospitals and through digital and virtual means in our ambulatory settings. “We are on track to flatten the curve,” she said. Graven’s data confirms that staying home has saved lives, Edwards said. Graven reports a decrease in statewide hospital admissions that began April 4 – exactly 12 days after the statewide stay-at-home order, which is enough time for someone to become infected, deteriorate and ultimately end up in the hospital. The result? Oregon is a top performer so far in managing the projected surge. A week later, she issued a statewide stay-at-home order. It gave us a timeframe and brought everything into focus.”Ĭatalyzed, OHSU leaders began using the model the weekend of March 14 as they conversed with other health system leaders, data scientists, policymakers and the governor – helping make the case for urgent, decisive action. ![]() Peter’s model made COVID-19 an absolute stark reality. “We were already preparing for the pandemic, but we were talking in generalities. Renee Edwards, M.D., M.B.A., senior vice president and chief medical officer for OHSU Health, remembers the moment Graven showed her his model. The difference between a good decision and a bad decision is just days. “If you mess up, it will get away from you. “That’s a recipe for disaster for things that grow exponentially,” he said. People’s normal instincts, Graven knew, is to try something and then wait to see if it works. What started out as a personal project became one of the most consequential tasks of his career. “If we didn’t act fast, we would be like Italy, a disaster on the front pages of the news.” Numbers bring clarity The exponential curve resembled a finger pointing to the sky – a warning. The figure showed the need for hospital beds doubling and doubling over time, outstripping bed capacity. The graph he produced mimicked what would happen to the Portland area over the next month if no stringent public health measures were implemented. He modeled several predictive approaches and based them on the city of Daegu in South Korea’s North Gyeongsang Province, a city similar in size to Portland that was experiencing an outbreak. He collected data from China and South Korea. ![]() On his own initiative over the next week, the assistant professor of health management and policy, OHSU-PSU School of Public Health, burrowed into infectious disease and epidemiology principles, teaching himself these fields. The next morning, Graven woke up and thought, “What are the ramifications for OHSU? For Portland and Oregon?” He turned to data. Then came the news of Oregon’s first presumptive case of COVID-19 on Friday, Feb. On any given day, he might model hospital readmission rates or the cost-effectiveness of a clinic’s quality improvement effort. (OHSU/Kristyna Wentz-Graff)Īs the lead data scientist in OHSU’s Business Intelligence unit, Peter Graven, Ph.D., uses numbers and advanced analytics to forecast health-related outcomes. Lead data scientist in OHSUs Business Intelligence unit, Peter Graven, Ph.D., uses numbers and advanced analytics to forecast health-related outcomes.
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